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+ 1 on Eric's answer, especially re launch budgets being a function of cashflow - and how scenario plans can be very effective(elements of which I've used in launches as well). To address a couple of other aspects of your question: 1. One metric other than what you've mentioned that can be critical is k-factor - either from referrals or organic lift from paid installs(or both). Getting a clearer idea of how much 'free' traffic you can expect can be valuable in modeling out your growth. 2. Rather than a 'trampoline' launch, I've been a part of launches where a staggered incremental rollout has been effective. What this means is to spend an initial launch budget(suggest starting anywhere from $10k to $100k/month based on your cashflow), assess actual revenue and LTV based on your launch. And if your actual LTV(or ROAS) is close to what your predicted LTV/ROAS is, then you scale up within your SANs - and/or to additional channels. Marked as spam
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Good question. I think you need to establish a few other things before you set a "launch budget":
I've made the point in a number of articles on Mobile Dev Memo that an advertiser can go broke buying LTV > CAC profitable traffic. So what's more important to think about in setting a budget is what kind of payback you need against various levels of spend to produce a healthy level of cash flow. That said, a trampoline launch is not a good idea in the year 2020: there's simply no reason to "go big" at some arbitrary launch date with the impact of platform featuring having diminished to the extent it has. You can adjust budgets in real-time based on early-funnel metrics during your launch week; you don't need to commit to some level of spend before you set your app live in the App Store and Google Play. That said, what I recommend (and what I did with the launch of Angry Birds 2) is:
You often see some bigger companies spend a ton of money on new launches, and I wonder how much of that is due to company politics / having a big marketing team ("When all you have is a hammer...") as well as an inability internally of building a financial model that incorporates things like ROAS curves and cohort evolutions. Part of the reason I released Theseus as an open source library was to give advertisers the tools to do these kinds of scenario analyses. Marked as spam
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