Can Meta’s Threads app reach 100MM DAU this quarter?

I built a simple model to project DAU for Meta’s new Threads app. Like all models, it is a work of fiction and the projections contained within are almost certainly false. But I think it’s helpful as a tool for considering how Threads might grow, and at what rate.

The assumptions I have used put Threads’ average global DAU (ex-EU) for this quarter at just over 93MM DAU, growing to roughly 175MM by Q2 2024. All assumptions and references are explained in the “Notes” tab.

The initial version of the model used 2BN as an estimate for Instagram’s current MAU. I revised that version because I wasn’t happy with using such a dated metric — it was revealed in December 2021. I curve-fitted Instagram’s historical MAU milestones going back to September 2015 to derive a current MAU estimate (in July 2023) of nearly 2.6BN.